'Arab Spring' of democracy owes thanks to George Bush

Miranda Devine
March 20, 2005
The Sun-Herald

It has been amusing watching the tortured knots various pundits have contorted themselves into trying to deny that the flickerings of freedom in the Arab world have anything to do with US foreign policy post 9/11 and, especially, the dreaded George Bush.

Since the invasion of Iraq, a series of events, remarkable when taken together, have occurred in the Middle East, prompting optimists to predict an "Arab Spring" of democracy.

There was Iraq's "purple revolution", as Bush has dubbed it, after the purple-ink-stained fingers of voters. Under the calm leadership of Grand Ayatollah Ali Husaini Sistani, the Shiite majority which won the elections is busy involving the Kurdish and Sunni minorities in the democratic process, which keeps proceeding, despite the expectations of Western doomsayers.

Then there was Lebanon's "cedar revolution", when people-power toppled the Syrian puppet government, although by last week, nine days later, the old prime minister, Omar Karami, was back in power and Syrian-backed Hezbollah supporters were out in numbers. But Syria is pulling out thousands of troops as well as its intelligence agents and last week a reported 1 million democracy activists took to the streets of Beirut, some carrying signs that read, "Thank You, George W. Bush."

In Saudi Arabia municipal elections were held, for the first time. In Kuwait, protesters rallied outside Parliament to demand women be given the vote. "Women's rights, now," read the placards. In Egypt, Hosni Mubarak promised a free presidential election. And while Libya isn't anywhere near democracy, a few days after Saddam Hussein was arrested, leader Muammar Gaddafi renounced his weapons of mass destruction. All a crazy coincidence?

ABC journalist Monica Attard appeared on Richard Glover's 702 radio program on Thursday to declare the so-called Arab Spring had nothing to do with Iraq, not "by any stretch of the imagination". Those who claim a link do so because it "suits their propaganda purposes". So why now? asked Glover. Attard thought the Arab news network Al-Jazeera and the flowering of regional media might be responsible. In UK's The Guardian, Timothy Garton Ash had someone else in mind, asking: "Has Osama bin Laden started a revolution in the Middle East?" Anyone but Bush.

But at a lunch of pastrami on rye in Sydney on Friday, Israel's former ambassador to the UN, Dore Gold, had a different view. As president of the Jerusalem Centre for Public Affairs think-tank, he has been adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and long involved with high-level negotiations in the Middle East, including those in 1996 among the US, Lebanon, Syria and France to create the Monitoring Group for Southern Lebanon. So you might say he knows what he's talking about.

Gold says it is too early to write a history book chapter titled " Arab Spring", not even a chapter titled "Late Winter", as one wag suggested.

But, "I think the Iraq war and the fall of Saddam Hussein has ignited something across the region . . . A psychological wall has come down. When an Arab dictatorship collapsed from an assault by coalition forces, perhaps that put a lot of dictatorships on notice.

"In order to defeat terrorism you have to do more than win militarily.

"You have to set conditions which make the ideology of militant Islam less palatable and give an alternative. Only by promoting this democratic ideal can you offer young people a different vision and pull away the outer rings of support for organisations like al-Qaeda."

Last week's agreement in Cairo between Palestinian factions and terrorist groups is a step forward. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, unlike his late predecessor Yasser Arafat, now "realises the use of terrorism by Palestinians is completely self-defeating".

There is not yet talk of peace, only of Tahdi'a, says Gold, which means a period of "calm" in Arabic. But, "Am I optimistic? Yes, there is a basis to feel good." As for the United Nations, it has failed to resolve international conflicts, and shown itself impotent in the face of genocide in places such as Rwanda and Bosnia.

The emerging alternative is a "realignment of global politics [which] involves a coalition of US and its allies in coalitions of the willing".

Australia is in the box seat, along with Britain, Israel, India, Japan, South Korea and Singapore.

Gold's informed and commonsense assessments show you don't have to be a Pollyanna when looking at the Middle East, but neither do you have to deny reality.