Lebanon towards abyss ?

Blast edges Lebanon towards abyss
By Nicolas Rothwell
March 24, 2005
From:
News.com.au

THE shadows over Lebanon deepened yesterday, and the country's much-feared return to factional violence seemed to be accelerating, as the second bomb in four days exploded in a Christian quarter of north Beirut, killing three people and wounding eight.
The blast, which came even as tensions over Syria's political place inside Lebanon mounted, suggests forces opposed to the country's fledgling democracy movement might be prepared to engage in a systematic campaign of violence.
First reports suggest the dead in yesterday's bombing were foreign cleaners, working in a shopping centre at the heart of the upscale Jounieh district.
The shock wave from the blast left the windows and fronts of plush shops and nightclubs - symbols of Beirut's role as an Arab pleasure capital - shattered and torn.
The device which caused it was reportedly placed in one of the shopping centre's stairwells.
In the previous incident, a car bomb exploded in a Christian suburb of Beirut early on Saturday, wounding 11 people.
Lebanon has been in a state of suspended crisis and hope ever since the massive explosion in central Beirut on February 14 that killed former prime minister Rafik Hariri and unleashed a wave of anti-Syrian protests.
The UN report into that attack is due to be released today in New York and a leading newspaper controlled by Hariri's business empire is already reporting the document will accuse the Lebanese Government of negligence and evidence-tampering.
Although a prolonged campaign of demonstrations and counter-actions, coupled with intense international pressure, has transformed the map of Lebanon in recent weeks, the situation in Beirut is still delicately poised.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is at the Arab League summit in Algiers, confirmed to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan last night that his forces would complete a full two-stage withdrawal from Lebanon, where parliamentary elections are due next month.
But opposition leaders claim that a campaign of intimidation by Syrian intelligence has begun, and there are now deep fears among the activists of the "cedar revolution" that Damascus will sow discord in order to retain its overarching security role inside the country.
At the scene of last night's blast, opposition parliamentarian Faris Bouez was unambiguous: "It is a political message to the independence uprising."
The broader landscape of contending forces is still unclear.
Negotiations to form a caretaker government in Beirut are continuing, with the opposition demanding half the seats in any new cabinet.
Opposition leaders, gathered around Druze politician Walid Jumblatt, have also been pressing for the immediate resignation of Lebanon's six top security chiefs - and some even want the pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud to step down.
But these demands appear to have been relaxed in the latest behind-the-scenes negotiations.
With fresh protests scheduled in the days ahead, the mood is ever more tense in the Lebanese capital and apprehensions about a possible bombing campaign have already caused many Christians to move out of the city.
Many Lebanese opposition figures are now attempting to craft a fresh political compact.
Talks are to be held soon between the head of the Shia Hezbollah militia, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and Maronite patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir about the possible place of the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon's future.
Hezbollah, which is armed and pro-Syrian, has staged vast rallies challenging the authority of the opposition in recent weeks, and appears to positioning itself to play a part in Lebanon's politics after the formal Syrian departure.
But many observers mindful of the ruinous civil war that destroyed the country between 1975 and 1990 fear that the rivalries between the different communities of Lebanon are now primed to spill over, and that the potential exists once more for a more extensive form of conflict.